Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 1.110973 1.170856 1.232836 1.301906 1.376882 1.455978 1.545949
2026-01-04 1.011563 1.095601 1.186220 1.291694 1.411718 1.544804 1.704591
2026-01-11 0.960244 1.060158 1.171079 1.304338 1.461419 1.642387 1.869161
2026-01-18 0.915564 1.025997 1.151426 1.305971 1.493444 1.716409 2.006192
2026-01-25 0.891307 1.012262 1.152506 1.329365 1.549734 1.819887 2.183709
2026-02-01 0.845905 0.970169 1.116462 1.304179 1.542880 1.842426 2.257269
2026-02-08 0.800757 0.925763 1.074777 1.268751 1.519642 1.840785 2.296386
2026-02-15 0.771698 0.899373 1.053501 1.257093 1.525080 1.875270 2.384926
2026-02-22 0.751042 0.882213 1.042533 1.257401 1.545240 1.929341 2.503251
2026-03-01 0.723696 0.855432 1.018045 1.238551 1.538193 1.945007 2.566361
2026-03-08 0.692157 0.822164 0.983893 1.205233 1.509444 1.928218 2.579361
2026-03-15 0.674247 0.805605 0.970548 1.198824 1.516946 1.962405 2.670628
2026-03-22 0.663203 0.798137 0.969529 1.210044 1.551094 2.039089 2.837489
2026-03-29 0.644555 0.780176 0.954039 1.200777 1.555647 2.072571 2.938895
2026-04-05 0.635116 0.773863 0.953637 1.212117 1.590116 2.152536 3.122874
2026-04-12 0.622665 0.763042 0.946616 1.213582 1.609757 2.210474 3.274519
2026-04-19 0.618011 0.762393 0.953249 1.234551 1.659335 2.318241 3.523550
2026-04-26 0.598459 0.740988 0.930524 1.211974 1.641161 2.315546 3.572286
2026-05-03 0.576752 0.716090 0.902218 1.180179 1.607213 2.284894 3.566062
2026-05-10 0.563296 0.702120 0.888748 1.169706 1.605966 2.308218 3.663885
2026-05-17 0.554061 0.693677 0.882735 1.169982 1.621509 2.360462 3.822536
2026-05-24 0.539721 0.677795 0.865704 1.153038 1.608591 2.362885 3.881788
2026-05-31 0.521848 0.656610 0.840592 1.123057 1.573331 2.324451 3.854150